Mission Allocation
Total effort budget
200
Unallocated effort
0
Traffic Flow
Capabilities vs Confidence
Events
Why Ships Aren't Crossing
▾ About this model
What this teaches:
Closing a chokepoint can be easier than making it safe enough for commerce to resume. Watch how military success against Iranian forces does not automatically restore shipping.
Win: Traffic above 70% for 7 consecutive days.
Lose: 60 days below 30% traffic = global recession + permanent rerouting.
Tips:
• Mine threat is sticky — neglecting MCM is costly.
• Escort credibility builds slowly through safe passage.
• One attack during recovery undoes weeks of progress.
• You can't do everything — tradeoffs matter.
This simulator is an explanatory toy model inspired by public analysis of Hormuz closure scenarios, mine warfare, and commercial shipping risk. It illustrates mechanisms and tradeoffs; it does not predict real-world outcomes.
Closing a chokepoint can be easier than making it safe enough for commerce to resume. Watch how military success against Iranian forces does not automatically restore shipping.
Win: Traffic above 70% for 7 consecutive days.
Lose: 60 days below 30% traffic = global recession + permanent rerouting.
Tips:
• Mine threat is sticky — neglecting MCM is costly.
• Escort credibility builds slowly through safe passage.
• One attack during recovery undoes weeks of progress.
• You can't do everything — tradeoffs matter.
This simulator is an explanatory toy model inspired by public analysis of Hormuz closure scenarios, mine warfare, and commercial shipping risk. It illustrates mechanisms and tradeoffs; it does not predict real-world outcomes.